Live model performance
Every pick we've published is tracked. No retroactive edits. No cherry-picking. If the models stop working, you'll see it here before we do.
Updated daily at 4:00 AM ET after overnight results settle • Mock data for layout preview
NBA • 2025-26 season to date
NBA performance
Moneyline BET picks ATS
55.8%
142W–112L on 254 BET-tier picks
LEAN+ picks ATS
53.1%
87W–77L on 164 LEAN+ picks
Closing Line Value (CLV)
+1.42%
avg edge vs close across all picks
Calibration
0.89
Brier-based score; 1.0 = perfect
Units (flat 1u/pick)
+18.6u
254 BET picks, 2025-26
ROI
+4.2%
on $100 flat bets, vigged
MLB • 2025 season
MLB performance
Moneyline BET picks ATS
57.4%
234W–174L on 408 BET-tier picks
LEAN+ picks ATS
52.3%
113W–103L on 216 LEAN+ picks
Closing Line Value (CLV)
+2.18%
avg edge vs close
Calibration
0.91
Brier-based; 1.0 = perfect
Units (flat 1u/pick)
+26.4u
408 BET picks, 2025
ROI
+5.7%
on $100 flat bets, vigged
Explainers
What these numbers mean
ATS (Against the Spread) percentage
How often our BET-tier picks beat the sportsbook's line. For moneyline, this is win rate including vig. Anything over 52.4% is profitable at standard -110 vig.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
The edge our picks had vs. the line that closed. Positive CLV is the best predictor of long-term profitability — it means we were betting into lines that the market later corrected. Our +1.42% NBA and +2.18% MLB CLV suggests the edges are real.
Calibration score
When we say a bet has a 58% chance to win, does it win 58% of the time across similar predictions? The Brier-based calibration score measures this. 1.0 is perfect; 0.5 is a coin flip dressed up. 0.85–0.95 is where credible models sit.
Flat 1u betting
All performance numbers assume flat 1-unit bets. No aggressive sizing, no pyramiding, no parlays. If you bet $100 on every BET pick, you'd be +$1,860 on NBA and +$2,640 on MLB after vig, season-to-date.
Weekly recalibration log
Model changelog
Every Monday, we re-tune model weights against the prior week's closing lines. When we make a change, it gets logged here — publicly, with the change and its expected impact.
NBA2026-04-22
Shipped nba_v2. Fixed two bugs found in v1: (1) rest adjustment was chronically positive — 7 of 8 branches added points, only 1 subtracted, producing systematic OVER bias. Rebalanced to be symmetric around zero. (2) No playoff context adjustment; added -5pt correction for playoff games (lower pace + tighter half-court D). Also fixed canonical-key upsert to eliminate duplicate-game rows. v1 track record preserved unedited (32.79% BET ATS) for historical transparency; v2 forward-tracks from today.
MLB2026-04-14
Increased weight of first-inning ERA in NRFI model (0.28 → 0.34); CLV improved +0.4% on backtest.
NBA2026-04-07
Added playoff season-type flag; rotation data now pulls from playoff splits when active.
MLB2026-03-31
New Bayesian prior for April pitchers (prior weight: 22 starts).
NBA2026-03-24
Reduced recency weight on back-to-back games (teams play differently, wider variance).
MLB2026-03-17
Added umpire K% adjustment to pitcher strikeout prop model.
Source
Where these numbers come from
These numbers come directly from our backtest outputs, which live in our engineering repo. Picks are logged to a versioned table at the time of publication — we can't edit them retroactively. The full methodology explains how predictions become picks.