Paper #5PlannedNBA
NBA Playoff Rotation Compression: How Coach Decisions Move Player-Prop Markets
Quantifying how coaches shorten benches in the playoffs — and which prop markets mis-price the resulting minutes inflation.
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| game_id | TEXT | nba_game_history | NBA game identifier. |
| date | DATE | nba_game_history | Game date. |
| season_phase | TEXT | nba_game_history | regular | playoffs | play-in. |
| series_stage | TEXT | derived | For playoff games: round + game number (e.g. R1G3, ECF G7). |
| team | TEXT | nba_game_history | The team a player belongs to in this row. |
| player_id | TEXT | nba_player_box | NBA Stats player identifier. |
| minutes_played | NUMERIC(4,1) | nba_player_box | Actual minutes played in this game. |
| reg_season_avg_minutes | NUMERIC(4,1) | derived | Player’s regular-season minute average for this team. |
| minutes_inflation | NUMERIC(4,1) | derived | minutes_played − reg_season_avg_minutes. Cohort-defining variable. |
| pts | INT | nba_player_box | Points scored in this game (graded outcome for points props). |
| reb | INT | nba_player_box | Rebounds in this game. |
| ast | INT | nba_player_box | Assists in this game. |
| prop_market_line | NUMERIC(5,1) | odds_snapshots | Posted prop line (points / rebounds / assists) at game start. |
| prop_over_odds | INT | odds_snapshots | American odds on the over at close. |
| prop_under_odds | INT | odds_snapshots | American odds on the under at close. |