Paper #6PlannedMLB
The Park Factor Problem: How Public Stat Sites Get Coors Field Wrong by 12%
Traditional park factors (Baseball Reference, FanGraphs) compress park effects badly. Quantifying the bettor edge from altitude + weather + handedness park factors.
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| park_id | TEXT | mlb_parks | Stadium identifier. |
| park_name | TEXT | mlb_parks | Friendly stadium name. |
| season | INT | mlb_parks | Season year. |
| br_park_factor | NUMERIC(5,1) | baseball_reference | Public Baseball Reference park factor (the comp we beat). |
| fangraphs_park_factor | NUMERIC(5,1) | fangraphs | Public FanGraphs park factor (the other comp). |
| altitude_ft | INT | weather_park | Stadium altitude above sea level. |
| avg_temp_f | NUMERIC(4,1) | weather_park | Mean game-time temperature for the season. |
| avg_humidity_pct | NUMERIC(4,1) | weather_park | Mean humidity at first pitch. |
| avg_wind_mph | NUMERIC(4,1) | weather_park | Mean wind speed at first pitch. |
| wind_direction_avg_deg | NUMERIC(4,1) | weather_park | Mean wind direction (0–360 degrees, 0 = north). |
| lhp_runs_per_game | NUMERIC(4,2) | derived from statcast | Average runs scored when a left-handed pitcher starts. |
| rhp_runs_per_game | NUMERIC(4,2) | derived from statcast | Average runs scored when a right-handed pitcher starts. |
| corrected_park_factor | NUMERIC(5,1) | derived | Our blended park factor — altitude + weather + handedness combined. |
| corrected_minus_br | NUMERIC(5,1) | derived | How much our factor differs from BR’s. The actionable signal. |