Paper #7PlannedNBA
NBA Schedule Fatigue Pricing: How Back-to-Backs and Travel Move ATS Win Rates
Quantifying the ATS impact of back-to-backs, three-in-fives, and cross-country travel across 3,708 graded NBA model picks with travel-miles and B2B flags.
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| pick_id | BIGSERIAL | nba_predictions_backtest | Unique pick identifier. |
| date | DATE | nba_predictions_backtest | Game date. |
| team | TEXT | nba_predictions_backtest | Team selected by the model. |
| travel_miles | NUMERIC(7,2) | nba_predictions_backtest | Miles team traveled since previous game (great-circle). |
| days_rest | INT | derived | Calendar days since the team’s last game. |
| is_b2b | BOOLEAN | nba_predictions_backtest | True if this is the second night of a back-to-back. |
| is_three_in_five | BOOLEAN | derived | True if the team is playing 3 games in 5 nights. |
| is_road_team | BOOLEAN | derived | True if the team is on the road for this game. |
| fatigue_cohort | TEXT | derived | Bucket label: rested-home / b2b-road / etc. (paper-defining variable) |
| pick_odds | INT | nba_predictions_backtest | American odds at entry. |
| closing_odds | INT | odds_snapshots (JOIN) | American odds at game start. |
| ats_outcome | TEXT | derived | cover / no-cover / push relative to the closing spread. |
| units_returned | NUMERIC(7,3) | nba_predictions_backtest | Net units after grading. |