Paper #9PlannedNBA

Q1 NBA Lines Are Mis-Calibrated: 17 Years of Quarter-by-Quarter Box Score Evidence

Per-quarter scoring across 23,118 NBA games shows Q1 totals lines compress real variance by ~14% — and the directional bias depends on rest days.

Read it

Free executive summary, key chart, key takeaway. Delivered to your inbox the day the paper drops.

Buy it

$7/paper

Full 15-20 page PDF, print-resolution charts, reproduction appendix. No subscription, one-time payment.

Available when published.

License it

$1K–3K/paper

For sportsbooks, hedge funds, media. Above plus citation rights, internal redistribution, and a custom analysis on your data.

Buyer

NBA quarter-prop bettors, DFS platforms

Effort

3 weeks

Enterprise license

PrizePicks / Underdog quant teams — $1-3K

What's in the paper

~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
Glossary + references to academic literature

Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.

Field	Type	Source	What it means
game_id	BIGSERIAL	nba_game_history	Game identifier.
date	DATE	nba_game_history	Game date.
q1_home	INT	nba_game_history	Home team Q1 points.
q1_away	INT	nba_game_history	Away team Q1 points.
q1_total	INT	derived	q1_home + q1_away (graded outcome for Q1 totals).
q1_margin	INT	derived	q1_home − q1_away (graded outcome for Q1 spreads).
closing_full_total	NUMERIC(5,1)	nba_game_history	Closing full-game total (the price books usually ¼ to derive Q1).
q1_market_line	NUMERIC(4,1)	odds_snapshots	Posted Q1 total from sportsbook (where available).
days_rest_home	INT	derived	Home team rest days going into game.
days_rest_away	INT	derived	Away team rest days going into game.
rest_diff	INT	derived	home_rest − away_rest (the cohort variable).