Paper #11PlannedNBA
Component Agreement and ROI: When NBA Model Sub-Signals Stack, How Much Edge Compounds?
Across 3,708 graded picks, we score every bet by how many independent model components (efficiency, schedule, context) agreed on a side — and report ROI by stack depth.
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| pick_id | BIGSERIAL | nba_predictions_backtest | Unique pick identifier. |
| date | DATE | nba_predictions_backtest | Game date. |
| efficiency_edge | NUMERIC(8,5) | nba_predictions_backtest | Component 1: offensive/defensive efficiency edge in points. |
| schedule_edge | NUMERIC(8,5) | nba_predictions_backtest | Component 2: rest, travel, and B2B edge in points. |
| context_edge | NUMERIC(8,5) | nba_predictions_backtest | Component 3: matchup-specific edge (lineup, injury, motivational). |
| composite | NUMERIC(8,5) | nba_predictions_backtest | Sum of the three components — the model’s headline edge. |
| components_agreeing | INT | nba_predictions_backtest | How many components (0–3) point the same direction. The paper’s key cohort variable. |
| decision | TEXT | nba_predictions_backtest | BET / LEAN / LEAN+ / PASS — confidence label assigned at pick time. |
| pick | TEXT | nba_predictions_backtest | Team selected. |
| pick_odds | INT | nba_predictions_backtest | American odds at entry. |
| correct | BOOLEAN | nba_predictions_backtest | Did the pick win? |
| units_returned | NUMERIC(7,3) | nba_predictions_backtest | Net units after grading. |
| roi_per_pick | NUMERIC(6,4) | derived | units_returned / units_staked. |