Paper #1In active draftingMLB
Closing Line Value Is the Metric That Matters: A 2,682-Pick MLB Empirical Study
The folkloric claim that CLV predicts ROI, tested on 2,682 graded MLB picks across three independent model versions. Headline finding: CLV explains roughly 2.5× more variance in cohort ROI than win rate (R² 0.49 vs 0.20).
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What's in the paper
- ~15-20 page PDF, citation-ready
- Full methodology, reproducible from any pick history with the same fields
- Print-resolution charts (bucket analysis, cross-version scatter, regression face-off)
- Robustness appendix — bootstrap CIs, sample-size convergence, version cross-validation
- Glossary + references to academic literature
Data used
Every field that goes into the analysis. Open methodology — you can reproduce this paper from any pick history with these columns.
| Field | Type | Source | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| pick_id | BIGINT | mlb_picks | Unique identifier for each graded MLB pick. |
| model_version | TEXT | mlb_picks | Which OddsIQ model version generated the pick (v1, v2, v3). |
| pick_date | DATE | mlb_picks | Calendar date the pick was generated and bet would have been placed. |
| pick_team | TEXT | mlb_picks | Team selected by the model. |
| opponent_team | TEXT | mlb_picks | Opposing team for the same game. |
| bet_market | TEXT | mlb_picks | Market type — moneyline only for this paper (spreads/totals deferred). |
| entry_book | TEXT | mlb_picks | Sportsbook used to record the entry price. |
| entry_odds | INT | mlb_picks | American odds at the moment the pick was generated. |
| closing_book | TEXT | mlb_picks | Sportsbook used as the closing-line reference (typically Pinnacle). |
| closing_odds | INT | mlb_picks | American odds at game start (sharp closing line). |
| entry_implied_prob | NUMERIC(5,4) | mlb_picks | Raw implied probability from entry odds (with vig). |
| closing_implied_prob | NUMERIC(5,4) | mlb_picks | Raw implied probability from closing odds (with vig). |
| entry_no_vig_prob | NUMERIC(5,4) | mlb_picks | Devigged entry probability — both sides normalized to 100%. |
| closing_no_vig_prob | NUMERIC(5,4) | mlb_picks | Devigged closing probability — the headline CLV input. |
| clv_pct | NUMERIC(6,4) | mlb_picks | Closing minus entry no-vig probability — the per-pick CLV. |
| bet_outcome | TEXT | mlb_picks | Graded outcome — win, loss, or push. |
| units_staked | NUMERIC(6,3) | mlb_picks | Stake size in units, derived from the model’s Kelly fraction. |
| units_returned | NUMERIC(7,3) | mlb_picks | Net units after grading (negative for loss, +odds for win). |
| roi_per_pick | NUMERIC(6,4) | derived | units_returned / units_staked. The dependent variable. |